Heading out to breakfast with my bride, yet taking the time (plus three cups of coffee) to complete a preview of Week #4 in college football. Hopefully, you all saw the early post on Thursday, when Boise State squeaked out a win over BYU. Game shouldn't have been close, as the Broncos forced turnovers and had the Cougars against the wall. Impressive stops by BYU and then a heartbreaking failed 2-point attempt to win the game late. Mountain West is a fun conference!
OK, place your bets. You can take every one of these to the bank. Preferably, my bank.
Union (0-3) at St. Lawrence (0-3). Two teams with unblemished records--love that! Both played Utica badly; OK, Union scored more points, but it was late in the game. Saints' QB Zane Fish was picked off four times last week against Alfred. I've always been of the opinion that losing to a school with a name like Alfred is humiliating enough. Throw on top of that the fact that St. Lawrence has been outscored 88-21 in its first three games. PICK: Union on the road.
Air Force (1-1) at UNLV (0-3). Whenever Air Force or BYU travel to Vegas, I always imagine the visiting players wandering the Strip, gambling away their money, being targeted in the front row of a comedy show, or bedazzled by some show girls. Funny thing is, it never seems to happen. Or if it does, we never hear of it, nor do we see much evidence. Afraid the Rebs just aren't very good--again. They've dropped eight in a row at home and sixteen on the road. On the other hand, they do have QB Nick Sherry, who can put up big numbers through the air, and their defense is allowing thirteen PPG fewer than last year. The Academy had trouble slowing down Michigan's Denard Robinson, both through the air and on the ground. I think the #1 rushing offense in the country will keep Sherry & Co. off the field. PICK: Air Force.
Army (0-2) at Wake Forect (2-1). Remains to be seen how much the Deacons have left in the tank after being demonized 52-0 by Free Shoes U last week. Also, will heartbreaking 1-point loss to Northern Illinois be a stimulant or a depressant? Neither team has won on the road this year, so advantage to Wake. In fact, Army has lost nine straight road games and lost decisively the last time these two teams met. Wake's problem is stopping the opponent's offense, and the Black Knights come into the game ranked #2 (behind Air Force) in the country in rushing. If Army's secondary can contain QB Tanner Price, who can throw the long ball, they have a shot. I'll take that bait. PICK: Army in the upset.
Navy (0-2) vs. VMI (1-2). Middies are off to their worst start in years. The problem is the defense. Statistically, Navy has come up short in every category, even rushing, versus their opponents. On the other hand, their opponents have been Notre Dame and Penn State. The Keydets have been tough against the run, holding their opponents to 122 yds. per game. Their special teams play at a level above the rest of the squad, so if it's close kickoffs and punts will be crucial. It may be close, but not close enough for a fourt-straight loss. PICK: Navy in a close one.
(#13) USC (2-1) vs. Cal-Berkeley (1-2). Trojans return to the Coliseum with a "wait 'til next year" attitude. Did you hear the buzz this past week, about coach Lane Kiffin's dismissal of the media after a 27-second news conference? Punk. Meanwhile, Cal coach Jeff Tedford is smart enough to remind his players that they went on the road last week and performed remarkably well against THE Ohio State Buckeyes, rejuvenated under Urban Meyer. QB Matt Barkley has nothing left to play for, his abysmal showing last week taking him out of the running for the Heisman Trophy. OK, back to reality. Cal plays mediocre defense, and USC has the most offensive weapons of any team in the country. The key will be whether or not the Trojan defense plays as well against da Bearsssss as the Stanford defense played against them. And then there's the Coliseum. PICK: USC.
New Mexico (1-2) at New Mexico State (1-2). History is not on Lobo coach Bob Davie's side. The last time a UNM coach won his opener against State, Ronald Reagan was president. New Mexico has two running backs, neither of whom is averaging over 60 yds. per game on the ground. Aggies have a legitimate passing attack, led by QB Andrew Manley, who has thrown for three TDs in two games this season so far. Since game is in Las Cruces, and since I think Las Cruces is a pretty swell place, I'm siding with history. PICK: New Mexico State.
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