Conference Championships Decide BCS Bowl Invites

Stick a fork in ‘em, the Lobos of New Mexico are done.  Air Force, BYU, and USC are on vacation (bye weeks when bye weeks are appropriate, not to mention unavoidable).  Army-Navy renew their rivalry for the Obama Trophy next week.  But this week is crucial to bowl alignment.  The big boys are playing their conference championships for the right to play in the biggest ticket games of the season.  Meanwhile, also-rans will be on the sideline waiting to scarf the lefty-overs.  Everyone who follows college football has an opinion, but none more important than MINE.  So here you go…

SEC championship:  #2 Alabama (11-1) vs. #3 Georgia (11-1)—Georgia Dome, Atlanta.  Both are one-loss wonders, with the Bulldogs having the higher quality failure vs. South Carolina.  Don’t count on the venue being an advantage for them; they’ve failed there before and are capable of doing so again.  But in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!”  Dawg QB Aaron Murray holds a slight advantage over the Tide’s A. J. McCarron in percentage completion and efficiency.  The RB position is a dead heat, with ‘Bama’s combo of Eddy Lacy and T. J. Yeldon piling up yardage and TDs on pace with Georgia’s Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall.  On overall offense, Georgia outscores Alabama, so the nod here goes to the Bulldogs.  Let’s talk defense:  Crimson Tide 1^st in the nation in yards and points allowed, and Georgia jelling into form as a unit at just the right time.  Bet against the reigning SEC co-defensive Player of the Year, a guy whose actual name is Rambo?  I say ‘Bama will have to settle for the Capital One Bowl.   PICK:  Georgia.

PAC-12 Championship:  #8 Stanford (10-2) vs. #17 UCLA (9-3)—Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto.  Home field advantage shouldn’t matter, a reality to which we were exposed just last weekend when Stanford trounced UCLA 35-17 in the Rose Bowl.  To paraphrase Bruin coach Jim Mora, Jr., UCLA has had a “nice little season”, but the Cardinal should return to Pasadena for real and send the Bruins packing to the Alamo Bowl.  Stanford may be the best team you haven’t heard about, being overshadowed in their own conference by the likes of Oregon and USC.  But neither of those teams is playing in this game, and it has nothing to do with probation or controversy.  The giant Spruce Tree offense scores early and often, while the UCLA defense is ranked near the bottom of its own conference.  And while the Bruins can score too, apparently not against the Stanford defense, which held them to 65 yards rushing and 140 fewer total yards than their season average. Make no mistake, the game will entertain.  Put your money down on the home team this week.  PICK:  Stanford.

Big-12 Championship:  #7 Kansas State (10-1) vs. #23 Texas (8-3)—Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium, Manhattan, KN.  :Think there’s a home field advantage when the stadium is named after your head coach’s family?  Teams had seven common opponents, and the comparisons make little sense.  So perhaps a better question might be, how tough did the Wildcats take their final game loss to Baylor, which knocked them out of the national championship discussion?  They’ve had a bye week to think about it, so how will they respond?  As for Texas, Case McCoy takes over for an injured David Ash at QB.  Never mind the pedigree (he’s the little brother of Colt, the imminently successful QB of the ’06-’09 ‘Horns), it will be supremely difficult to change field generals in a situation like this.  Both teams excel on offense, but K-State’s defense has played more consistently than Texas…except against Baylor.  So maybe the Baylor loss was an aberration.  I think so.  PICK:  Kansas State. 

ACC Championship:  #13 Florida State (10-2) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)—Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte.  An early-season Top 5 pick, the ‘Noles disappointed their fans during a season which featured a schedule not much more challenging than BYU’s.  A Week #6 loss to NC State was inexcusable, but nothing that a win over arch-rival Florida wouldn’t cure.  Valiant effort aside, a second loss still left FSU in the driver’s seat for an automatic BCS bid to the Orange Bowl.  The opponent—Georgia Tech—hasn’t exactly distinguished itself, completing a 6-loss season by rolling over for #3 Georgia 42-10 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates.  Make no mistake:  Tech lost to some very good teams, like Virginia Tech and Clemson.  But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State; heck, they even lost to BYU!  Former Navy coach Paul Johnson has succeeded in bringing the triple-option offense to Atlanta, but it won’t make up for a spotty defense, which allows over 30 points and 400 total yards of offense per game.  Given State’s propensity to score (40 pts./game), this should be relatively lopsided.  PICK:  Florida State.

Big-10 Championship:  #14 Nebraska (10-2) vs. Wisconsin (7-5)—Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.  Kind of hard to believe that a program with the track record of Wisconsin’s is unranked.  Talk about backing into a championship game...were it not for Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible, the Badgers would be accepting a bid to the Meineke Car Care Bowl instead of competing for a spot in the Grandaddyofemall.  Newcomer Nebraska has made a smooth transition into its new conference, but it’s important to remember they played for the Big 12 Championship two of the last three years, so they’re a deserving opponent.  These two teams played earlier in the season, with the ‘Huskers rallying for a come-from-behind victory in Week #5.  Very little has happened to make me think the outcome will be much different this weekend.  An eerily similar situation occurred last year, when Wisconsin avenged a mid-season loss to Michigan State by winning the conference championship in their second meeting.  But alas, Nebraska has too much offense while Wisconsin seems unable to come up with big plays on either side of the ball, so crucial in a championship.  PICK:  Nebraska.

Not to be outdone by their bigger brethren, here’s the lineup for the D-III quarterfinal round.  D-III gets it right…look at how the tournament seeds have played out.  Only #8 Cal Lutheran got out of line.  Those wacky Lutherans!  Oh that’s right, D-III schools have players that put the student in “student-athlete”.  Also, have you ever seen so many ZEEEE-ros in the won-loss records??

#9 Widener (11-0) at #1 Mount Union (12-0).  Mounties have allowed opponents to score only 72 points all year.  Aside from its first four games in which Widener registered two shutouts and gave up only 24 points total, the Pride surrendered 153 points in its last seven contests.  Not this year, boys.  PICK:  Mount Union.

#6 Wesley (10-1) at #2 Mary Hardin-Baylor (12-0).  Teams know each other well, having met in the playoffs each of the past six seasons.  This year they had a regular season date, won 32-25 by the  Crusaders.  Nod goes to the unbeaten.  PICK:  Mary Hardin-Baylor.

#5 UW-Oshkosh (12-0) at #3 Linfield (11-0).  Linfield defense will bring the heat to UWO QB Mickey Inns all afternoon.  PICK:  Linfield.

#7 Hobart (12-0) at #4 St. Thomas (12-0).  Two run-oriented offenses, with a definite edge in playoff experience to the Tommies.  Ah, dahellwiddit...PICK: HOBART.

Happy Trails!

It’s the holiday season, and what better time for colleges and universities to show their appreciation for the coaches who devote their lives to student athletes than to “relieve them of their duties”! 

Perhaps the most notable, though not entirely surprising, is the firing of Gene Chizik, who just two years ago was carried aloft by his national champion Auburn Tigers.  More recent (and relevant) developments include 1-9 in the SEC; three season-ending humiliations at the hands of Texas A & M, Georgia, and Alabama; and allegations that his coaching staff has been involved in nefarious recruiting practices.  In the SEC?  REALLY????

Other terminations include Tom O’Brien at N. C. State, even though the Wolfpack finished 7-5.  Highly-respected Athletic Director Kay Yow, herself one of the all-time winningest coaches (women’s basketball) was imminently quotable.  On the university's football program, Yow remarked that she and O’Brien “agree on the goal of becoming a Top 25 team, we just disagree on how to get there”.  Most ironic, however, was Yow mentioning that she especially appreciated O’Brien’s “attention toward NCAA rules compliance”.  Yeah, sure.  On the other hand, I guess $1.2 million over the next four years should ease O’Brien’s regrets about playing by the rules.

Out at Boston College is Frank Spaziani, who wasn’t left with a whole lot in the wake of Jeff Jagodzinski’s hasty exit in 2009.  You may recall that Jago was discovered to be interviewing with NFL teams, and when warned that it could lead to his termination, continued interviewing…and was summarily fired.  Not as surprising is Jon Embree, who went 4-21 in two seasons at Colorado, simply unacceptable after the successes of the likes of Bill McCartney, Rick Neuheisel, and Gary Barnett.  But a real shocker is Danny Hope at Purdue, who was let go just hours after the Boilermakers reclaimed the Old Oaken Bucket from Indiana.  Hell, it's only a pail.

No word yet on Lane Kiffin.

Here's the rest of the (w)rap for Week #13:

Fresno State 48, Air Force 15.  Former NFL-er David Carr’s little brother Derek surpasses 400 yds. passing for the sixth time this season, as the Bulldogs rout the Falcons.  Carr is brilliant—28-of-32—and the FSU defense forces two fumbles and an interception in holding The Academy to just over 300 yds. in total offense.  Zephyrs now off until December 29^th, when they will face either Central Florida, East Carolina, or Tulsa in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth.

BYU 50, New Mexico State 14.  Cougars bring their slacker 2012 schedule to a merciful conclusion by stomping what’s left of the Aggies.  Game gets off to a slow start; no one scores in the first quarter at all, and then NMSU actually takes the lead on an Andrew Manley-to-Perris Scoggins 8-yard strike.  From that point on, it’s all BYU, with backup QB James Lark throwing six TD passes, five of them to WR Cody Hoffman.  Can’t say whether it’s stingy BYU defense or anemic State offense, but either way Aggies only manage 187 total yards of offense.  Next up for BYU:  San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl vs. San Diego State.  Seems that Cougars decide to pass up Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl where they would have had to play USC, Arizona State, or Washington.

#1 Notre Dame 22, USC 13.  Game certainly lives up to its hype, especially 5-play Irish goal line stand in the 4^th quarter.  WR Marqise Lee makes it look easy, first with a 43-yard kickoff return, followed immediately by a 53-yard pass from freshman backup QB Max Wittek.  Then the Irish defense gets stingy.  Although a pass interference penalty puts the ball on the one, the Trojans cannot score.  Afterward, Lane Kiffin is heard to remark, “When the ball is on the two-inch line, you’d think you could score touchdowns.”  Notre Dame is the complete package:  offense (217 yds. passing by Everett Golson, 146 yds. rushing from Theo Riddick), defense (led by Manti Te’o who has one of the two Wittek interceptions while collecting his season-high 100 tackles), and special teams (three field goals from PK Kyle Brindza).  They'll need it against whoever wins the SEC.

Colorado State 24, New Mexico 20.  Rams draw first blood, only to have Lobos come back and hold a lead until late in the fourth quarter.  Moments after a crucial 4^th-and-2 at midfield is converted into a 1^st down by RB Chris Nwoke, WR Joe Hansley hauls in a 30-yard strike from QB Connor Smith.  New Mexico, which maintains nice offensive balance throughout the afternoon, has its chance at the endzone in final two minutes, only to see three B. R. Holbrook passes fall incomplete.  4-9 is still 4-9, but if there is such a thing as “quality losses”, the Lobos and coach Bob Davie have a great deal on which to build heading into 2013.  Especially looking forward to the possibility of BYU returning to the Mountain West and having to face them.

For those of you who I've turned into D-III fans, here are the results from Round 2 of the "Road to the Stagg Bowl":

#1 Mount Union 55, #19 Johns Hopkins 13

#2 Mary Hardin-Baylor 63, #16 Franklin 17

#3 Linfield 30, North Central (IL) 14

#4 St. Thomas 24, #17 Elmhurst 17

#5 UW-Oshkosh 37, Bethel 14

#6 Wesley 56, #18 Cortland State 6

#7 Hobart 35, #24 Wittenberg 10

#9 Widener 28, #11 Salisbury 7

NOTE:  2011 D-III National Champion UW-Whitewater didn't make the playoffs.  GO HOBART!!

This Qualifies as Rivalry Week?

When I think of all-time college football rivalries, I think of Harvard-Yale (last week), Army-Navy (next week), and Texas-Texas A & M (unbelievably, not even being played this season).  Stanford-Cal? Already in the books.  Even the most-played rivalry of all--Minnesota vs. Wisconsin, for "Paul Bunyan's Axe"--went down in October.  But truly there still are plenty of long-standing face-offs that will resume today, and many come with prized hardware, though none rival "Da Shoes".

• #5 Oregon at #15 Oregon State, the "Civil War"; can the Ducks rebound after heartbreaking loss to Stanford?
• 5-6 Purdue hosts 4-7 Indiana in the battle for the "Old Oaken Bucket".
• #13 Oklahoma-#21 Oklahoma State, a.k.a. the "Bedlam Series", resumes and should be a major-league shootout.
• Though nameless, #12 South Carolina visits #11 Clemson in what may provide the best rivalry action of the day.
• Ohio State, #4 in the AP poll but on probation, tackles #19 Michigan in "The Game"...and many are taking the Wolverines.
• #3 Georgia, still with an outside chance at the BCS title game, and a disappointing Georgia Tech squad meet in what's oxymoronically referred to as "Clean, Old-fashioned Hate".  Nice.

Our TV will be on, but a stylishly-late Thanksgiving dinner will be our focus today.  OK, Denise and I will be paying more attention to USC-Notre Dame than we will to the mashed potatoes.  Here's the rest of the action:

Air Force (6-5) at Fresno State (8-3).  This must qualify as a rivalry because my brother was born in Fresno (and the city has not forgiven our family since).  Too bad for the Falcons that today's game is on the road.  Too bad, also, that FSU is a superior team that should even The Academy's record for 2012.  PICK:  Fresno State.

Army (2-9) idle.  Next vs. Navy 12/8 in Philadelphia.  OK, nephews…how is it that Army gets THREE (3) bye weeks?  And don’t give me any gas about “academic integrity” or “tradition of excellence”.  You’re just ducking the tough teams like Idaho State.  And Wofford.

Navy (7-4) idle.  Next vs. Army 12/8 in Philadelphia.  Mids’ first of THREE (3) bye weeks came AFTER Week 1.  At least they made up for it by scheduling VMI and Central Michigan.  Best explanation:  provides more tutoring time for Squid ballers.

BYU (6-5) at New Mexico State (1-9).  Wanna know how bad the BYU schedule really is?  This week’s opponent, the New Mexico State Aggies are winless since August, their only victory coming against Sacramento State in Week 1.  State even lost to Idaho.  Besides, NMS should be playing New Mexico in the "Rio Grande Rivalry".  After taking care of its final regular season opponent, the Cougars should decline that bid to the Kraft Macaroni & Cheese Bowl and instead accept a bid to the Hostess Going-Out-Of-Business Bowl.  PICK:  BYU.

UNRANKED USC (7-4) vs. #1 Notre Dame (11-0).  That’s a headline in and of itself.  Pre-season #1 team, senior QB the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman, and a marquee transfer from Penn State at RB, who’d have thunk the Trojans would’ve fallen completely out of the Top 25 before the season’s even over.  Could Lane Kiffin’s job be on the line?  If a win vs. the Irish is what it takes to save it, he’s as good as gone.  With QB Matt Barkley sidelined after being crushed by the UCLA front seven, the ship is in the hands of redshirt freshman Max Whittek.  Whittek says Trojans will not lose.  Freshmen, HAH.  PICK:  Notre Dame.

New Mexico (4-8) at Colorado State (3-8).  Sinking hearts in Albuquerque are wondering, “Why do we have to play a 13-game schedule?”  Answer:  because you won't play in a bowl unless it flushes.  This week's "game-you-hope-isn't-televised" should provide a positive finish to Bob Davie's inaugural season at UNM.  PICK:  New Mexico.

And I'm sure we're all thankful that George O'Leary isn't coaching anymore.

B-C-S Is A Mess-Mess-Mess

What a weekend...#1/2 Kansas State is pasted by Baylor and #2/1 Oregon is stunned by #13 Stanford.  But more importantly, remember what I said about Alabama, Georgia, and Florida?  ESPN agreed with me.  Although they took it a step further, I can’t find the hilarious clip to save my neck.  So I’ll have to hit you with the always-entertaining Lee Corso instead.

Here's a summary of what I said vs. what actually happened.

 Air Force 21, Hawaii 7.  Is my prediction spot-on or what????  Cody Getz, check.  No passes, check.  Bowl invite, check...except it's to the Armed Forces Bowl, not the Bell Helicopter Bowl.  Nice sidebar:  Falcons hold 'Bows to just 162 yards of total offense.

Temple 63, Army 32.  Black Knight football fans will not soon forget Montel Harris.  The Owls' senior RB rushes for 351 yards and SEVEN--count 'em--SEVEN touchdowns against a hapless Cadet defense.  Normally, a three-TD, 139-yard performance by Army's Trent Steelman would come on the business end of a game story, but not against a Temple squad which establishes three impressive school records (534 yards and 9.4 yds/ carry as well as 63 points).

Navy 21, Texas State 10.  Really got this bass-ackwards.  RB Noah Copeland has two scores and Mids roll up 407 yds. rushing on 62 carries.  Combined with the Army beatdown at the hands of Temple, this seems to give Navy the early line in the upcoming battle for the Obama Trophy.

San Jose State 20, BYU 14.  No cupcake, no frosting.  Although Cougar QB Riley Nelson has a big day (335 yds. through the air), Spartans prevail on the strength of rubber-band defense that allows 422 total yards yet doesn't give up final TD until last two minutes of the contest.  Good thing BYU finishes regular season with another cupcake.

UCLA 38, USC 28.  This one was too easy to predict, all the signs were there just like I said.  The noteworthy QB isn't Matt Barkley, rather it's Brett Hundley who once again balances 22-for-30 passing with two rushing scores.  Time and again the UCLA defense comes up with huge defensive stops.  Priceless, understated snippet from Bruin coach Jim Mora, Jr.:  "They [USC] did a nice job."

Nevada 31, New Mexico 24.  The story here is Pack QB Cody Fajardo, but not because of his passing, rather his running.  The agile Fajardo notches a game-high 186 yards on 20 carries.  On the other side of the ball, Cole Gautsche manages only two passes, both of which are incomplete, a fete last accomplished in 1964 against Montana.