Conference Championships Decide BCS Bowl Invites

Stick a fork in ‘em, the Lobos of New Mexico are done.  Air Force, BYU, and USC are on vacation (bye weeks when bye weeks are appropriate, not to mention unavoidable).  Army-Navy renew their rivalry for the Obama Trophy next week.  But this week is crucial to bowl alignment.  The big boys are playing their conference championships for the right to play in the biggest ticket games of the season.  Meanwhile, also-rans will be on the sideline waiting to scarf the lefty-overs.  Everyone who follows college football has an opinion, but none more important than MINE.  So here you go…

SEC championship:  #2 Alabama (11-1) vs. #3 Georgia (11-1)—Georgia Dome, Atlanta.  Both are one-loss wonders, with the Bulldogs having the higher quality failure vs. South Carolina.  Don’t count on the venue being an advantage for them; they’ve failed there before and are capable of doing so again.  But in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!”  Dawg QB Aaron Murray holds a slight advantage over the Tide’s A. J. McCarron in percentage completion and efficiency.  The RB position is a dead heat, with ‘Bama’s combo of Eddy Lacy and T. J. Yeldon piling up yardage and TDs on pace with Georgia’s Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall.  On overall offense, Georgia outscores Alabama, so the nod here goes to the Bulldogs.  Let’s talk defense:  Crimson Tide 1^st in the nation in yards and points allowed, and Georgia jelling into form as a unit at just the right time.  Bet against the reigning SEC co-defensive Player of the Year, a guy whose actual name is Rambo?  I say ‘Bama will have to settle for the Capital One Bowl.   PICK:  Georgia.

PAC-12 Championship:  #8 Stanford (10-2) vs. #17 UCLA (9-3)—Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto.  Home field advantage shouldn’t matter, a reality to which we were exposed just last weekend when Stanford trounced UCLA 35-17 in the Rose Bowl.  To paraphrase Bruin coach Jim Mora, Jr., UCLA has had a “nice little season”, but the Cardinal should return to Pasadena for real and send the Bruins packing to the Alamo Bowl.  Stanford may be the best team you haven’t heard about, being overshadowed in their own conference by the likes of Oregon and USC.  But neither of those teams is playing in this game, and it has nothing to do with probation or controversy.  The giant Spruce Tree offense scores early and often, while the UCLA defense is ranked near the bottom of its own conference.  And while the Bruins can score too, apparently not against the Stanford defense, which held them to 65 yards rushing and 140 fewer total yards than their season average. Make no mistake, the game will entertain.  Put your money down on the home team this week.  PICK:  Stanford.

Big-12 Championship:  #7 Kansas State (10-1) vs. #23 Texas (8-3)—Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium, Manhattan, KN.  :Think there’s a home field advantage when the stadium is named after your head coach’s family?  Teams had seven common opponents, and the comparisons make little sense.  So perhaps a better question might be, how tough did the Wildcats take their final game loss to Baylor, which knocked them out of the national championship discussion?  They’ve had a bye week to think about it, so how will they respond?  As for Texas, Case McCoy takes over for an injured David Ash at QB.  Never mind the pedigree (he’s the little brother of Colt, the imminently successful QB of the ’06-’09 ‘Horns), it will be supremely difficult to change field generals in a situation like this.  Both teams excel on offense, but K-State’s defense has played more consistently than Texas…except against Baylor.  So maybe the Baylor loss was an aberration.  I think so.  PICK:  Kansas State. 

ACC Championship:  #13 Florida State (10-2) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)—Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte.  An early-season Top 5 pick, the ‘Noles disappointed their fans during a season which featured a schedule not much more challenging than BYU’s.  A Week #6 loss to NC State was inexcusable, but nothing that a win over arch-rival Florida wouldn’t cure.  Valiant effort aside, a second loss still left FSU in the driver’s seat for an automatic BCS bid to the Orange Bowl.  The opponent—Georgia Tech—hasn’t exactly distinguished itself, completing a 6-loss season by rolling over for #3 Georgia 42-10 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates.  Make no mistake:  Tech lost to some very good teams, like Virginia Tech and Clemson.  But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State; heck, they even lost to BYU!  Former Navy coach Paul Johnson has succeeded in bringing the triple-option offense to Atlanta, but it won’t make up for a spotty defense, which allows over 30 points and 400 total yards of offense per game.  Given State’s propensity to score (40 pts./game), this should be relatively lopsided.  PICK:  Florida State.

Big-10 Championship:  #14 Nebraska (10-2) vs. Wisconsin (7-5)—Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.  Kind of hard to believe that a program with the track record of Wisconsin’s is unranked.  Talk about backing into a championship game...were it not for Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible, the Badgers would be accepting a bid to the Meineke Car Care Bowl instead of competing for a spot in the Grandaddyofemall.  Newcomer Nebraska has made a smooth transition into its new conference, but it’s important to remember they played for the Big 12 Championship two of the last three years, so they’re a deserving opponent.  These two teams played earlier in the season, with the ‘Huskers rallying for a come-from-behind victory in Week #5.  Very little has happened to make me think the outcome will be much different this weekend.  An eerily similar situation occurred last year, when Wisconsin avenged a mid-season loss to Michigan State by winning the conference championship in their second meeting.  But alas, Nebraska has too much offense while Wisconsin seems unable to come up with big plays on either side of the ball, so crucial in a championship.  PICK:  Nebraska.

Not to be outdone by their bigger brethren, here’s the lineup for the D-III quarterfinal round.  D-III gets it right…look at how the tournament seeds have played out.  Only #8 Cal Lutheran got out of line.  Those wacky Lutherans!  Oh that’s right, D-III schools have players that put the student in “student-athlete”.  Also, have you ever seen so many ZEEEE-ros in the won-loss records??

#9 Widener (11-0) at #1 Mount Union (12-0).  Mounties have allowed opponents to score only 72 points all year.  Aside from its first four games in which Widener registered two shutouts and gave up only 24 points total, the Pride surrendered 153 points in its last seven contests.  Not this year, boys.  PICK:  Mount Union.

#6 Wesley (10-1) at #2 Mary Hardin-Baylor (12-0).  Teams know each other well, having met in the playoffs each of the past six seasons.  This year they had a regular season date, won 32-25 by the  Crusaders.  Nod goes to the unbeaten.  PICK:  Mary Hardin-Baylor.

#5 UW-Oshkosh (12-0) at #3 Linfield (11-0).  Linfield defense will bring the heat to UWO QB Mickey Inns all afternoon.  PICK:  Linfield.

#7 Hobart (12-0) at #4 St. Thomas (12-0).  Two run-oriented offenses, with a definite edge in playoff experience to the Tommies.  Ah, dahellwiddit...PICK: HOBART.