Postseason Bowl Picture About To Take Shape

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl Only 18 Days Away!

Abbreviated college football schedule this week, with a handful of conference championships and one lingering rivalry game with serious bowl implications.  Everyone on the regular weekly radar has either finished their seasons (Union, Air Force, and Georgia State), is awaiting a bowl assignment (BYU, USC, BC, and Oregon), or has one final rivalry game to play (Army vs. Navy, for both the Thompson Cup and the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy).

Sark meets the press

In other news, USC Athletic Director Pat Haden shocked no one by not removing the interim tag in front of Ed Orgeron's name.  It's safe to say that Washington's Steve Sarkesian wasn't on many people's short list, but there's no denying the logic behind Haden's choice.  It's even more certain that offering Orgeron the title of "Assistant Head Coach"--despite being attached to a hefty salary--was more insulting than simply offering thanks for a job well done and providing a pleasant exit from Los Angeles.  While I don't think anyone can blame Orgeron for quitting on the spot, I'm not sure how that will play when the coaching carousel opens for him to climb aboard.

Enjoy these games, certain to be among the very best of the year.

Thursday

#19 Louisville (10-1) at Cincinnati (9-2); 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PT, ESPN.  Use your DVR to record The Big Bang Theory on Thursday night, so you won't miss the great matchup between the nation's leaders on both sides of the ball.  A win for either team, coupled with a Central Florida loss to SMU, means the American Athletic Conference championship (there is no AAC title game).  The Cardinals' Heisman candidate QB Teddy Bridgewater has a 71% completion rate, 25 TD passes with only three picks, and NFL 1st-round draft choice written all over him.  While not his equal, the Bearcats' Brendon Kay came off the bench after the start of the year to put up numbers nearly as impressive (70%/22 TDs) but has been picked off 9 times.  With teams so evenly matched, the game might very well come down to those turnovers.  More importantly, with allowing only 242 yds./game, give the edge to the Cards and their defense.  PICK:  Louisville.

Friday

OK, so they play teams like UMass

Bowling Green (9-3) vs. #14 Northern Illinois (12-0); 8 PM ET/5 PT, ESPN2.  Prolific offense against stingy defense, as the unbeaten Huskies take on the Falcons (no, not those Falcons).  Don't be enamored of the clean slate, know that Bowling Green has allowed seven separate teams only one touchdown each, holding all opponents under 14 points/game.   NIU's QB Jordan Lynch has emerged as a legitimate non-BCS conference candidate to win this year's Heisman Trophy.  In their last regular season game, Lynch ran for 321 yds. and 3 TDs.  The prize for this conference championship is a berth in the GoDaddy Bowl against the Sun Belt's winner, three-loss Louisiana-Lafayette.  Conference championship...Heisman Trophy...unbeaten season...with three such large incentives, I'll take the Huskies.  PICK:  Northern Illinois.

Saturday

Is this anything like "Mayhem"?

#17 Oklahoma (9-2) at #6 Oklahoma State (10-1); 12 PM ET/9 AM PT, ABC.  The "Bedlam Bell" is up for grabs in this series that's been played since 1904.  The original trophy was modeled after the bell clapper in Old Central, the oldest building on the Oke State campus.  Nowadays it's a glass bell mounted on a wooden base, not unlike the national championship trophy.  Unlike other rivalries, the term "Bedlam" carries over to other sports contested by the two schools, including wrestling and men's basketball.  In 2011, the gridiron Cowboys ended an eight-game losing streak with a crushing 44-10 victory.  Last year was the first in the series to go into overtime, resulting in a 51-48 Sooner win.  Never mind any of that.  There is no longer a Big 12 championship game, and the conference's BCS bowl representative will be determined by who's on top at the end of the season.  That means this game is everything for Oke State because they've already beaten the other two contenders (Baylor and Texas).  A win, and they go to the Fiesta Bowl    PICK:  Oklahoma State.

Alberg family will thank me for this

#5 Missouri (11-1) vs. #3 Auburn (11-1); 4 PM ET/1 PT, CBS.  OK, OK, so the Tigers shocked the world by rolling the Tide.  Gone also are Georgia, Florida, Texas A & M, LSU, and South Carolina, each having been mentioned as possible contestants in this year's SEC championship.  Nobody--and I mean NO BODY--mentioned Missouri in the same breath as these others.  Were it not for the absence of its own outstanding signal-caller, James Franklin, in Mizzou's double-overtime loss to South Carolina in October, these Tigers might already be in the national championship discussion.  They'll have to earn their way (and get a little help from Ohio State, Florida State, or both) and overcome Cinderella.  Hail Mary vs. Georgia...109-yd. runback vs. 'Bama...is there a third miracle on tap?  You heard it here first.  PICK:  Missouri.

Where's Oregon??

#7 Stanford (10-2) at #11 Arizona State (10-2); 7:45 PM ET/4:45 PT, ESPN.  This is who's left after the carnage that has been the Pac-12 regular season.  While perennial powers USC and Oregon are waiting for their bowl invites once all the other chips to fall into place, we're left with a highly competitive matchup between teams with identical two-loss records.  A national championship will not emerge from this game, but an upset might.  Whichever team can apply the most pressure to the opponent's quarterback may be the difference between a win or a loss.  When these two met in September, Stanford prevailed.  With the game being played in Tempe, The Smack goes with the Sun Devils.  PICK:  Arizona State.

Cousin Howard will be watching

#1 Florida State (12-0) vs. #20 Duke (10-2); 8 PM ET/5 PT, ABC.  By now Duke's success in football has been well-documented and is widely-known.  The end comes this week, when the Blue Devils play for their first ACC championship since 1958 against ol' Free Shoes U.  Consensus Heisman Trophy winner QB Jameis Winston leads an undefeated Seminole team that has Clemson as its signature win on the season.  Despite being a 29-point dog, don't count out the Dookies.  Of course, I don't actually think they'll win, but expect a much closer game than 29 points.  PICK:  Florida State.

Sorry, Gretchen!

#2 Ohio State (12-0) vs. #10 Michigan State (11-1); 8:17 PM ET/5:17 PT, Fox.  Big 10...no, 11; no, 12 (no wait...definitely not Big 12).  Well, whatever your favorite number, this will be a "big" game.  The chic pick here is the Spartans, because for some reason folks seem critical of Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes.  Never mind Meyer and his team are 24-0 over the past two years, and that included the Jim Tressel sanctions.  This is the Big...whatever, and most teams in the conference apparently stink worse than most teams in other major conferences.  I'm not buying it.  The Bucks are good.  Then again, the Spartans are better.  PICK:  Michigan State.

Even Curt agrees

Utah State (8-4) vs. #24 Fresno State (10-1); 10 PM ET/7 PT, CBS.  What a wonderful year for the Aggies!  My heart goes with them, but Fresno State is simply a better team.  Despite seeing their undefeated season go down the drain in last week's shootout loss to San Jose State, Fresno State will have spent the week shoring up its defensive schemes.  Without QB Chuckie Keaton, the player most responsible for State's rejuvination and out for the season with a knee injury, the Bulldog defense will shut down the Aggies and then treat the townies to yet another Derek Carr aerial circus.  PICK:  Fresno State.

Where football is played for the love of the sport

Still alive and in the chase for the Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl, higher-seeded teams listed first:

• #1 Mt. Union (12-0) vs. #15 Wesley (10-2)
• #4 North Central (12-0) vs. #6 Bethel (12-0)
• #2 Linfield (11-0) vs. #5 U of Wisconsin-Whitewater (12-0)
• #3 Mary Hardin-Baylor (12-0) vs. #25 St. John Fisher (10-2)

All the top seeds should prevail, except for Linfield.  I'll take the UW-W Wildhawks to upset the Wildcats.  After all, the entire bracket was set up to pit Mt. Union and UDub-Dub in yet another (8th in 9 years) battle for the title.  Maybe the D-III model still needs some work...