Union is finished for the season. Army, Navy, and BYU are all idle until next week. This leaves Smack Daddy with a tiny conundrum: find other games to mal-predict, or pretend there's nothing going on? Since there is no humility in my family (because I have it all), I choose to dive into several games of national import that have BCS implications. But first, let's deal with The Academy and every year's team that gets screwed by the BCS.
I mean, Boise State loses on a missed field goal and plummets from #4 to #10, but Oke State--behind the entire game--drops from #2 to ONLY #4?? C'MON, MAAAAAAAAAAN! Except now there's a very strong chance the nation will get to see The Game Everyone Wants To See. More on that below.
Here's Week #13:
Air Force (6-5) at Colorado State (3-7). Last week against TCU, the Rams contained QB Casey Pachall but allowed the Frogs to run against them at will. This week they'll face a Falcon offense that prefers to run but shows you enough pass looks so you have to be prepared for both. That spells trouble for the home team. Unless the CSU offensive line can block better for QB Garrett Grayson (who is actually the backup to injured starter Pete Thomas), The Academy's defense will put its offense on display for most of the afternoon. PICK: Air Force.
#7 Boise State (9-1) vs. Wyoming (7-3). Though disappointing, Broncos will battle for runner-up in their new conference, which will be the result if they beat the visiting Cowboys. Last week the Pokes held New Mexico under 300 yards of total offense, smothering QB B. R. Holbrook in the process. Lobos, meet Kellen Moore; he will tear you a new one. Bronco fans need only remember last year's matchup up, in which their team hung a 51-6 loss on the 'Boys--in Laramie, at that. PICK: Boise State.
San Jose State (4-7) at Fresno State (4-7). Teams have identical records, but SJSU was supposed to be worse while FSU was supposed to be better. Game is in Fresno; advantage Bulldogs. This is Spartans' final game of the season, while Fresno has San Diego State on the road next week; advantage San Jose. As they showed against Navy, SJSU can shut down a running team, but Fresno has become increasingly "ept" through the air; advantage Fresno. FSU gets to the opposing QB much more frequently than do the Spartans; advantage Fresno. PICK: Fresno State (unless you'll give me points...)
Some VERY interesting matchups this weekend. Just look at how Texas-Texas A & M went down yesterday...five yards further away from the goalposts and the game would have ended differently. Electric bills will spike for November because of the following lineup appearing somewhere on your TV tomorrow:
USC (9-2) vs. UCLA (6-5). Associated Press has Trojans ranked #10...ESPN reports this as being just slightly ahead of the Seattle Seahawks. Shows how significant recruiting violations can be. Game made more interesting because Bruins are poised to win the newly configured Pac 12 South and challenge Stanford or Oregon for the first-ever conference championship. Game will be played in the L. A. Coliseum at an unforgivable 7:00 PST kickoff. None of this matters to UCLA head man Rick Neuheisel, who would be gone at the end of the season were it not for the fact that he holds a job that nobody else in the country wants. Trojans are just too good, and this is the third time this season that they've played in what amounts to the closest thing to a bowl they'll see all season. PICK: USC.
#13 Georgia (9-2) at #23 Georgia Tech (8-3). Speaking of the coaching hot seat, this match is bigger for Georgia head coach Mark Richt than for players on either team. Win and he keeps his job; lose and he's gone. Doesn't matter that Bulldogs have clinched SEC East and will face LSU-Arkansas winner in the SEC championship. Richt knows it's one and done. On the other side, Paul Johnson can do no wrong, and is in no danger of losing his job. Will that make Tech looser and Dawgs tighter? UGA has the better team, but an historical tendency to choke in big games. Saturday should be an exception. PICK: Georgia.
#6 Virginia Tech at #24 Virginia. I don't like Frank Beamer...he makes me nervous just watching him gyrate on the sidelines every week. Also, Tech doesn't deserve this high a ranking, not when you lose to Clemson 23-3. PICK: Virginia.
#17 Clemson (9-2) at #12 South Carolina (9-2). They may have identical records, but Gamecocks are hungry and Tigers showed their complacency in losing to NC State last week. The "other Carolina" dispensed with its internal problems by dismissing QB Steven Garcia from the team a few weeks ago. Since then their offense has jelled. Clemson doesn't believe in itself, which is why the Tigers also lost to Georgia Tech three weeks ago. How else do you explain holding Virginia Tech to three points yet then allowing Maryland to score 45 just two weeks later? On top of that, Clemson only beat Wofford by eight. PICK: South Carolina.
#8 Houston (11-0) at Tulsa (8-3). My Facebook friend (and former swimmer) Brian Hosmer reminded me of the stellar season these Cougars have amassed. Am willing to bet that if you asked the average college football fan who were the remaining undefeated/untied teams, several one-loss teams would be mentioned. Houston languishes in the not-so-hot Conference USA, yet opened its season with a W over UCLA. Since then, the Cougs have outscored their opponents 546-201, hanging 73 points on both Rice and Tulane as well as 56 each on East Carolina and Alabama-Birmingham. Those four schools do not exactly put fear into the hearts of BCS contenders, any more than Boise State's opponents have in recent years. Besides, Houston faces a very capable Tulsa team, as well as the pressure of trying to achieve a perfect record heading into bowl season. The Golden Hurricane's three losses have come at the hands of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State. So this game could be one of the best of the weekend...and it IS in Tulsa. PICK: Houston.
#2 Alabama (10-1) at #24 Auburn (7-4). REALLY tempted to take the Tigers in this one, but I'll come to my senses now and make the case for 'Bama. Except against LSU, Tide can score points. Then I remember the TWO games Auburn has lost when its opponent scored 45 points (LSU and Georgia). Alabama has scored 45 or more points on three separate occasions this season, and has been over 30 points a total of seven times. Like the detergent of the same name, this Tide will erase the stain on its 2011 record.. PICK: Alabama.
#1 LSU (11-0) vs. #3 Arkansas (10-1). Hogs only loss was to 'Bama and the SEC West title is on the line. But as witnessed by the emotional toll taken on Oklahoma State players by the loss of the school's women's basketball coach just before the game with Iowa State, heavy will be the hearts of the Arkansas players, due to the sudden and unexpected loss of redhsirt freshman TE Garrett Uekman to a heart attack last wek. A game of this emotional magnitude is too much for college-age kids. PICK: LSU.
UNSOLICITED COMMENTARY: Despite my picking to the contrary, Alabama is still vulnerable to Auburn. If 'Bama loses and LSU knocks off Arkansas as expected, both the Tide and the Razorbacks will have two losses which should drop them below Oklahoma State. However, there's a very real possibility that Oklahoma will upset the Cowboys when the two teams meet next week. Should that happen, the Stanford-Notre Dame game on Saturday looms large, as a Cardinal win allows them to make the case for the BCS title game. That would make this year's Boise State--Houston--the latest to clamor for a playoff system. I say, winner gets Army on its 2012 schedule.
No comments:
Post a Comment